Game On!

It is here at last - opening day! By the time you read this, the game may very well be over. But heading into the game, let me give you something to chew on.

The batting order that has been communicated at this point is as follows:

Pedroia
Youk
Papi
Manny
Lowell
JD Drew
Varitek
Ellsbury
Lugo

If it does not jump out at you, let me give you a hint. Look at the top of the order. Wouldn't you expect Jacoby Ellsbury to lead off? He did a great job of getting on base last season, and when he gets on base he creates all kinds of trouble for the defense. With his speed he can practically score from first on a sacrifice fly! While that is an exaggeration, he DID score from second base on a wild pitch last year.

So, what gives? Pedroia is a fine batter, but a s...l...o...w runner. To tell you the truth, I'm not sure exactly why the order is the way it is. You may hear that they don't want to put Ellsbury right in the spotlight to start off his "official" rookie season. Well, I would not give that theory much credit. They put Jacoby in the lead off spot as a replacement for the injured Coco Crisp in the World Series! There is no bigger stage than that. If they are willing to bat him lead off in the World Series, then opening day is not a big deal.

Here the real (most likely) reason. Jacoby has not had a great spring offensively. He is not their regular lead off batter (ala Johnny Damon for a few years). So, they are playing him relative to how he is playing right now. I guarantee he will not spend much time batting 8th this season. Terry Francona is simply putting him in a low pressure part of the order while he is looking for his groove at the plate and letting him get his stroke back with less urgency than if he was batting lead off.

Look for Dice-K to have a great game. He is at home, in comfortable surroundings, playing in front of an adoring home crowd. This should be a great game for him. The one thing to watch there is removing a starter during a game is a bigger deal than in the US. I'm sure that won't sway Francona, but I wonder how the Japanese fans will react to it. This time of year, I don't expect starters to go more than 6 innings.

Game On!

Sox almost boycott Japan

Interesting story developing today about the Sox almost boycotting the trip to Japan. Apparently, during negotiations leading up to the players agreeing to the trip, it was agreed that the coaches and staff would receive a stipend of roughly $40,000 for making the trip. However, yesterday Terry Francona found out that the stipend was being given to the players, but it was not being extended to the coaches and staff. The coaches and staff are not part of the players union and have very little leverage in negotiating these types of issues.

You should be proud, Sox fans, that our players stepped up. They took a vote, and it was unanimously agreed that they would sit out today's spring training game against the Blue Jays, and would boycott tonight's flight unless MLB stepped up and paid the stipend as originally promised. This was confirmed, and most likely instigated, by our very own Captain, Jason Varitek. Well, it seems to have worked - the game got played, and the flight is on.

All I can say is, way to go Sox! Most of the players' salaries are high enough where the stipend will not make a huge difference for them. But, to the coaches and staff, this stipend is significant, and was promised. Past team trips to Japan have provided this stipend, so I'm not sure where MLB missed this.

To me, this is a good sign of a unified team who are all looking out for each other - no 25 players and 25 cabs these days. I can tell you, a tight, unified team will always have more success. We are off on a good foot. Next stop....Tokyo.

Surprised by Mirabelli's Release?

You should be. This is not earth shattering news, but if you are intrigued, then you are paying attention. Doug Mirabelli has been the Sox primary backup catcher since 2002. He is very competent defensively, and is better than most at handling the knuckle ball, which allows the Sox to get the most out of Tim Wakefield, while providing regular rest for Jason Varitek. Mirabelli has never been a great hitter, but has been occasionally clutch and does reasonably well for a part time player. He became a free agent after 2007, but was re-signed this winter to a one year $550,000 contract. So, what changed since they signed the new contract?

Well, Doug's batting has been slowly declining since 2004, but he batted a reasonable .273 in six games this spring. Also, his age has been slowly increasing. Doug is 37 years old this year. That is not ancient, but it makes sense that the Sox would want to get younger at catcher. With Varitek turning 36 next month, they clearly need to be grooming the catchers of the future. My guess is that is exactly what is happening, but I do wonder why they signed Mirabelli to a new contract - wouldn't that have already been apparent? Well, perhaps they wanted to make sure someone could catch Wakefield, and Doug was their guy until someone else stepped up. So, who's stepping up? Who is the guy that has proven to them that they no longer need Mirabelli? Tim Wakefield has started 3 games so far this spring. For every inning of those three starts, his catcher has been Doug Mirabelli. If someone is taking his place, wouldn't you want to see that person handle Wakefield in at least one game this spring?

You may have read and heard that his successor is apparently Kevin Cash. If that is true, that is nothing more than a short term fix. Kevin Cash is not the catcher of the future for the Sox. I like the guy, but he is 30 years old, and only occasionally has he shown big league potential. He failed to stick with the Blue Jays, playing with them from 2002 to 2004 when he went to Tampa Bay. He had one spotty year with the D-Rays in 2005 and spent all of 2006 in the minors. When you can't make it with the Devil Rays, you've got to wonder. He was a decent fill-in last year for the Sox when Mirabelli was injured. But, how many catchers suddenly become big league material starting in their 30's? So, if Kevin Cash starts the season in Boston, it will be purely to be a backup catcher for this year, and the Sox must feel that he'll give them a little more than Mirabelli would have.

But, look further. There are two other young catchers coming along in the Sox system, Dusty Brown and George Kottaras. These guys are young, 25 and 24 years old respectively, and are looking pretty good, both of then batting over .400 this spring. So, do the Sox have hopes that one of these guys will take Mirabelli's place? Not sure, especially since neither of them has caught Wakefield in a game this spring. More likely, these guys are potential guys to take over for Varitek as the starter in a couple years. If that's what they hope, they won't waste their playing time sitting on the bench and solely catching the knuckle ball. So, the more they like these guys, the more likely they'll be in Pawtucket this year.

So, like I said, if you are intrigued, you are paying attention. I think the most likely situation is that they simply felt Mirabelli's skills, mostly due to age, have declined, and they want to break the mold of having a knuckle ball specialist as a catcher. They want more flexibility than that, and are willing to sacrifice a few extra passed balls to get a younger, hotter catcher as a backup, and Kevin Cash may be able to provide that. There is one other possibility that would not surprise me. It is conceivable that there is a trade pending that could being a new catcher into the picture. But, you would think they'd hang on to Mirabelli until the ink was dry first.

Can the Red Sox top Billy Crystal?

I have been hearing it on the radio, on the street and in the papers. The Yankees are (reluctantly) conceding that the Red Sox have become the team to beat. The Yankees have been shaken from the 2004 devastating loss to the Red Sox in the ALCS. The Yankees are desperate and clawing at anything to leapfrog back ahead of the Red Sox. I heard all of these things, and even after the firing of Joe Torre, I have been reluctant to believe it. Until now.

Have you heard the Yankees are giving Billy Crystal a shot at the big leagues tomorrow? He will officially be signed to a minor league contract (details of which are not available here), and that gives him the opportunity to win a spot on the big league roster. He is already slated to be a starter in the game against the Pirates this Thursday. But, who are the Yankees kidding? Sure, Billy Crystal is a devoted, life-long fan of the Yankees. Who can deny that? How many fans have gone to the trouble to make a movie about their favorite team? (the 2001 movie was "61*" and told the story of Roger Maris' 61 home run season - a good movie). But if they are trying out Billy Crystal, I will concede, the Yankees are surely desperate.

Can this be rational? Billy Crystal is turning 60 years old. Isn't that too old for MLB? Well, Satchel Paige pitched at the "official" age of 59 (no joke), so maybe there's a precedent. More recently, we've had old timers like Nolan Ryan and Julio Franco rolling the old wheelchair out onto the field. My guess, given that we are in the 21st century, is that Billy is taking a page from another adored Yankee player who showed us all how the simple adoption of modern medicine can allow you to continue to play year after year. Yes, Roger Clemens. Isn't it obvious? Billy Crystal was a regular figure at Yankee stadium during Roger's best years with the Yankees. Billy Crystal had a big fan in George Steinbrenner. So, Billy Crystal uses his fame to get himself access to the Yankee clubhouse, befriends Clemens, and shares with Roger his plan to get in shape and make the team someday. Roger, ever the baseball mentor, takes Crystal under his wing, introduces him to his own personal trainer, Brian MacNamee, and the next thing you know, Billy Crystal will come strutting out of the dugout tomorrow looking like a wrinkled version of Jose Canseco.

So, clearly the Yankees have outdone themselves this time. They are indeed desperate. But, they are clever. While the rest of the league explores untapped baseball talent across Asia and South America, the Yankees are the only ones exploring the untapped resources of Hollywood. It seems so obvious now, doesn't it? It was right under our noses the whole time! But, again, I think the Red Sox can outsmart them at their own game. Billy Crystal did not portray a baseball player in his movie, he directed it. Where the Red Sox (are you listening Theo?) can counter this is by going hard after Kevin Costner, and they need to do so before the Yankees think of it. Not only has Kevin Costner been associated with baseball movies, but he has played the parts of baseball players and adoring fans of baseball. I know what you are thinking - but is he a Red Sox fan? Well, maybe not to the extent that Billy Crystal is a Yankees fan, but in "Field of Dreams", which ballpark did he drive across the country to attend a game, Yankee Stadium? No, it was Fenway Park. That's good enough for me. And not only has he proven his love for the game in "Field of Dreams", but he also played a catcher in "Bull Durham" and a pitcher in "For the Love of the Game". We all know how valuable pitchers and catchers are.

Just imagine our first game against the Yankees when they trot out their new secret weapon in Billy Crystal, and then see the looks on their faces when Kevin Costner strides out of the dugout and takes the mound for the Red Sox. What a sight that would be!

Red Sox Pitching Progress

You've heard it a million times now - pitching wins championships. The point being that solid pitching is the foundation a team needs to start from. So, how does the pitching situation look for the Red Sox so far? Very promising!

Bad news - Schilling is out for a significant period of time. A healthy Schilling eats up innings, provides a solid veteran presence, can handle pressure, and is a proven post-season star. He will be missed, but that is nearly all the bad news!

Positives:

It was very confusing last year why Dice-K looked so good earlier in games, and earlier in the season. For a while, hitters were incredibly off balance, than later they were not. Well, according to pitching coach John Farrell, they discovered Dice-K was tipping his change-up. Not a good thing. The change-up is a fairly easy pitch to hit - IF you know it is coming. The change-up is a stealth pitch. To the batter, the pitcher looks like he is throwing a fast ball. However, due to a different way of gripping the ball, the pitch comes in roughly 10 miles per hour slower. It will either confuse the batter long enough to force him to take the pitch, or get him swinging too early. Anyway (you know all that already), if the batter knows it is coming, watch out! So, they've worked with Dice-K on perfecting the change-up and early indications are that the adjustments are working! This can make a huge difference!

Bartolo Colon looks like a steal so far. Throwing very well, mechanics are solid, and arm strength is great! If he keeps this up, don't be surprised he works his way into the #3 spot in the rotation! But, coming off of injuries the past two years, my concern is whether the elbow will last an entire season, or get sore again?

Tim Wakefield seems to be over his back issues and throwing well. Beckett is in better shape than last year and looks poised to dominate again! John Lester looked good in his last outing, and got some important post season experience last year.

As of today, my starting 5 for the Sox:
1) Josh Beckett (obviously)
2) Daisuke Matsuzaka (look for at least as good of a year as last year)
3) Bartolo Colon (presuming the elbow stays strong - may start in AAA for the first game or two)
4) Tim Wakefield (an effective knuckler keeps batters uncomfortable)
5) John Lester (nice to have a left starter)

Bullpen:
Julian Tavarez - long relief - spot starter
Karl Snyder - long relief - spot starter
Mike Timlin - middle relief - occasional setup man - spot closer
Manny Delcarmen - middle relief
Javier Lopez - need a lefty in the 'pen
Hideki Okajima - setup man - occasional closer
Jonathan Papelbon - Closer

Buchholz or Hansack may start the season with Boston if Colon is not ready. They'll probably spend most of their time in Pawtucket, and get called up as needed. If there is a significant injury, or they simply shine, they may stick longer. Gronkiewicz, Corey, Tejera and Masterson are all potential call ups as needed, but expect them to play mostly in the minors. They would be available to replace Tavarez, Snyder or Lopez if they aren't getting the job done.

That leaves Craig Hansen. So far, he still looks disappointing. He hit the Sox with such promise, but has shown very little since then. He throw very well, has a strong arm, but just can't get guys out. Not sure if it is mental, or perhaps predictability. Hopefully he can turn it around this year and start moving up!

Where are the young pitchers?

It is VERY early still, and spring training is going very smoothly for the Red Sox. Everyone is healthy, progressing well, and getting the work in.

But, have you noticed how the veteran pitchers are outshining the youngsters so far? The Red Sox have terrific depth in their young pitchers, and with the success we saw from guys like Lester and Buchholz last fall, I think we all are looking for the young guys to make a big splash this year. Alternatively, I usually see the veteran pitchers easing through spring training, not looking so good early on, but trying to peak for opening day.

Well, so far that has been backward in Fort Myers. The youth are starting the slowest (Lester 36.0 ERA, Hansen 18.0 ERA, Buchholz 18.0 ERA, Jackson 27.0 ERA, Gronkiewicz 10.12 ERA). These stats are based on no more than 2.2 innings of work, but it is interesting seeing the young guys starting out so slow.

The "veterans" (some of whom are pretty young too) are looking pretty strong out of the gates. Dice-K 1.80 ERA, Snyder 0.00 ERA, Wakefield 0.00 ERA, Timlin 0.00 ERA, Papelbon 0.00 ERA, and Okajima 0.00 ERA. Beckett has not pitched in an "official" game yet (pitching once to Boston College and once in a 'B' game) but he also has a 0.00 ERA and his only complaint is that he's too strong (overthrowing the fastball and getting too much elevation on it early in the game).

So, the older guys look good - Sox fans need to be happy about that. The young guys? Well, give them more work - plenty of time left.

Is Clemens Rational?

They have officially sent the FBI after Roger Clemens to investigate the possibility that he committed some form of perjury during his visit to congress. Hearing that made me truly pause and reflect on WHAT THE HELL IS CLEMENS THINKING? Obviously he is not thinking very clearly, that much is certain.

So far, all the evidence really seems to support the notion that Clemens did, in fact, receive steroid and HGH injections from Brian MacNamee. Suppose for a second we presume this is indeed what happened. I can see Clemens making an official statement through his attorney somehow denying the accuracy of the claim and leaving it at that. But, to hold a press conference stating you have NEVER been given even a single steroid or HGH injection, and then reaffirm those statements in front of congress, knowing you are out and out lying, is nothing short of ludicrous! He is wealthy, had a successful career, and is preparing for life after baseball. Why risk a prison sentence to go along with it? I just don't get it!

However, if MacNamee is the one who is lying, Clemens is doing the worst job possible of convincing anyone of his innocence. He provides no story of his own about what took place, only offering denials of all MacNamee's claims. His responses to Andy Pettitte's testimony are juvenile and not believable. Nothing really makes sense. If he was truly innocent, I would think he could explain things in a believable, coherent manner. The fact that he cannot do so makes me feel that he is simply lying and trying to cover things up. My bet is that he feels the whole case is not provable either way, so he'll simply take a side and stick to it knowing it cannot be proven. Looks like it was not such a good strategy.

He should have simply kept quiet and left the doubt out there and avoided further embarrassment and humiliation, possibly topped off with a jail sentence. Maybe he can room with Bonds.