Red Sox Smell Blood

I'm still a little confused. Are the Rays named after a fish, or a beam of light? They have a fish tank in center field full of Rays, and yet they have a sunshine sort of symbol on their jerseys. If they are fish, I might quip, "the tide is going out fast on the Rays' first post-season", or I might say "the sun is setting on the Rays' brilliant season", or something like that. Either way, I cannot help but hum a Queen song in my mind as I think about their plight; "Under Pressure".

I think the Red Sox have made it clear, once and for all, that it is simply a waste of time to count out a playoff team, even when their back is to the wall. You cannot say, "it looks like it is all over for the Red Sox this year", or anything like that. Instead, you need to say things like, "the Red Sox are down 3 games to 1, and are in a perfect position to make this a truly exciting playoff series".

Yes, I was very nervous about Terry Francona's move to start Josh Beckett in yesterday's game. I knew Beckett would battle like a gladiator, but there is only so much a wounded soldier can do. In the end, Beckett was no where near his 2007 post-season brilliance, but he did pitch well, relying on spotting his fastball, and mixing in the curve ball more than usual. The result was that he lasted 5 innings, only allowing 2 solo home runs. The bullpen gave him incredible support with 4 shoutout innings from Hideki Okajima (2 innings), Justin Masterson, and Jonathan Papelbon.

The Sox matched the Rays' solo home runs with 2 of their own, thanks to Kevin Youkilis and our very own captain, Jason Varitek. Tek had made us all groan in the second inning when the Sox looked like they were about to run Rays' starter, James Shields, out of the game. But runners at first and second with two outs, Varitek ended the inning with an easy fly out. The solo home run in the 6th inning made up for that nicely.

The Rays did not completely implode last night, but they look like they are feeling the pressure. The swagger has lost a touch of its swag, the head held high is drooping just a bit. This team has never faced this kind of heat. Playoffs are one thing, but getting bowled over in game 5 by an historic come-back team while standing directly in the bright hot light of the national media seems to be getting them nervous.

The largest crowd, by my estimation, ever to attend a Rays' home game was in the stands last night. 40,947 people came out and brought a real playoff atmosphere to the dome. I tip my hat to you all for that. Hopefully even more will turn out tonight. Regardless of the outcome, tonight's game will be a piece of baseball history. Either the Red Sox will have miraculously escaped, yet again, from the jaws of defeat, or the Rays will be on their way to their very first World Series.

Now, if the contest was to see who could spit the most times per inning, I'm afraid Jon Lester would have his work cut out for him. Matt Garza can spit with the very best players in history (just watch him tonight, and count how many times he spits in an inning). But, thankfully, spitting does not count, and a rested Lester should prove to be a hell of a challenge for the Rays tonight. My real concern is for Papelbon. He did a nice job last night, but his fastball was about 5 or 6 miles per hour slower than normal. I doubt that was intentional. If he was fatigued last night, he'll be more so tonight. If this game is close, I can't imagine being with an effective Papelbon. Keep you fingers crossed on that one.

Under Pressure!

Jon Lester or Josh Beckett?

This is not a new topic here. Prior to the series, I wrote a discourse about how I would approach the Red Sox pitching rotation for the ALCS. My choice for the first four games matched Terry Francona's. For the final 3 games, I indicated that I would use the results, the series standing, and pitching performances of the first 4 games to guide the choices for the last three games.

I intended to use Josh Beckett in game 5, if he was sharp in game 2 and not in need of extra rest, otherwise I would go with Dice-K. Tito went with Dice-K.

For game 6, I wrote that I would use "Lester (if this is a Sox elimination game) / Dice-K (if this is a Sox clinching game)". Guess what? It is an elimination game. I stick by that. But, what I am missing is the inside, up close contact with the guys that Tito has. My thought is that pitching Lester today puts him on normal rest. The last game he pitched with extra rest, he was less sharp and lost (game 3). Beckett, on the other hand, is clearly not himself, and likely trying to fully heal that oblique pull (or the elbow is nagging him again). Either way, give him the extra day of rest to be ready for a game 7 showdown.

In the end, I have to say that I trust Francona. He wants to win more than you or I. If putting Beckett out there today and not tomorrow would hinder their chances, I don't believe he would do it. I have to conclude that the coaching staff feels Beckett is ready to go, and able to perform well. If they manage to win, we all will appreciate having Lester in game 7!

But, my only concern is that, IF Beckett is not truly ready, then he will have to come out early, and then we throw everybody and anybody out there. That's fine, but I'd rather do that in a final game 7, not having to worry about staffing one more game the very next day!

So, Tito, I'm trusting you here. Let's get this done.

Rays Live True Cinderella Story in Dramatic Game 5 Loss

Yes, this is truly a Cinderella story. The King, Bud Selig, was throwing a huge party at Fenway Park, called the ALCS. The Rays wanted to go, but they had no superstars and no confidence that they should be there. So, their Fairy Godmother, played by Joe Maddon, showed up, and pulled out his magic wand. Joe convinced them they belonged there, and he cast a spell to make sure it stuck. He took a flopping Devil Ray out of the tank in Tropicana Field, and turned it into a plane to take them to Boston. Then, he cast spells on all of them.

He took Evan Longoria and Gabe Gross and turned them from mice into horses to pull the Rays on their journey. He took lizards named Dan Wheeler and J.P. Howell and turned them onto footmen to guide and care for the Rays during the journey. Finally, he found a rat named Grant Balfour, and turned him into a coachman to lead the charge through the late innings.

As all Fairy Godmothers will tell you, these spells only last until (roughly) midnight, eastern standard time. Joe warned them of this, and they all promised they would remember.

But, at the party, they were having so much fun. They met an opposing starting pitcher named Dice-K Matsuzaka, who was famous and exotic. Everyone wanted to meet Dice-K, but under the Fairy Godmother's spell, Dice-K only had eyes for the Rays. They danced with Dice-k and had so much fun that they hit home runs and jumped out to a 5-0 lead after only 3 innings. Later, they met Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon and enjoyed playing with them too, scoring 2 more runs. They became so elated with their great fortune, that they lost all track of time.

The clock began chiming, the midnight warning blaring out. But, the Rays could not get out of Fenway yet, it was only the bottom of the 7th inning. Grant Balfour, as the coachman, grabbed the reins of the Rays' horse-drawn carraige and snapped them to lead the charge through the late innings and out of the ballpark. Suddenly, Balfour was surrounded by swirling sparkles and right before our eyes, he changed back into a rat. Dustin Pedroia smashed the rat with an RBI single to score Jed Lowrie from third base. Then, Big Papi clobbered the rat with a three run home run.

The score was now 7-4, and Joe Maddon knew he could not win with a rat, so he sent the footmen, Wheeler and Howell in to help. Wheeler was barely starting when the swirly sparkles swirled around him, transforming him back into a lizard. As a lizard, there was not much he could do when JD Drew crushed his offering for a two run home run and the score was now 7-6. He gave it one more try, only to watch as Mark Kotsay doubled and Coco Crisp toyed with him for 9 pitches before lacing a single to tie the game at 7!

Godmother Joe had one idea left before it was too late. The clock had chimed 11 times, but maybe he could still escape. Joe sent Howell in to save them, but Howell was already turning back into a lizard. Kevin Youkilis ripped a ball to third, and Evan Longoria tried to field it and throw to first, but in mid throw, he suddenly transformed back into a mouse. This horse was gone, and the ball sailed away from Carlos Pena at first base and Youk ended up on second. Then JD Drew stepped up and smashed a line drive to right field. Gabe Gross raced back to make the catch, but half way there, he too changed back from a horse into a mouse, and a mouse will never catch a JD Drew line drive. Nor can a mouse throw out Youkilis steaming home from second base.

Youkilis scored, and the Cinderella story was over. They forgot to watch the time, and the clock ran out. Their juggernaut turned back into a flopping Devil Ray, which is what is was all along.

News Flash - Tampa Bay is for Real!

I have been hearing the moaning, complaining, and second guessing from Red Sox fans growing louder and louder. You are frustrated, angry, and gnashing your teeth grasping for reasons why the Red Sox are ruining your October. I can answer that question pretty easily. The Rays are better than the Red Sox right now, at this moment in time, which is the only thing that matters. Did you ever notice how when one of your batters strikes out, it is his fault - he is a bum. It's not the pitcher who was masterful. When your guy hits a home run, he's a great hitter, but when they other guy hits a homer, it's because your pitcher stinks. In this case, you need to starting thinking the other way. We don't stink, they are just playing better.

As far as the Rays go, we are so used to them being a meaningless team that this transformation is difficult to embrace. But, you know the saying, "if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be a duck"? That is what we are dealing with here. The Rays took over first place in the AL East midway through the season. We all wondered when they would collapse, but they never did. They had injuries and kept winning. They never let go of first place. They faced off against the Red Sox, their only true threat this season, in Fenway Park in September, and they survived and held on to first place. They survived a temporary losing streak in early September, and retained first place. They ended the season in first place with most home wins of any team. They passed their first post-season test by walking over the Chicago White Sox in the ALDS.

This team is for real, get used to it. Their pitching is running on all cylinders right now. They are hitting well, running well, and playing excellent defense. They are good. They are better than the Red Sox right now. That's what we are seeing. All those strategies you are juggling in your mind won't help. Batting Papi 6th, sitting Varitek, pulling Beckett sooner, mixing things up, are all interesting, but futile.

So, you admit the Rays are a good team playing great ball right now, right? But, aren't the Red Sox a great team? Aren't they the defending World Champions? Technically, yes, but practically speaking, no.

This is not last year's Red Sox team. Last year's team had Manny Ramirez batting 4th and Mike Lowell batting 5th. Last year's Red Sox had Jacoby Ellsbury creating all kinds of problems for the opposition, this year he can't get on base. Last year's team had one of the best post-season starters in history (Curt Schilling) on the roster, and Josh Beckett pitching the best games of his career. This year is different. Schilling is not available, Beckett is obviously not 100% healed from an oblique strain, and that takes a huge 1-2 punch out of the starting rotation. Big Papi is struggling to hit, and from watching his swing, I am certain his wrist does not feel 100%.

So where does that leave us? Is it all over? Not yet. The Sox came back from an 0-3 deficit against the Yankees in '04, and came back from a 1-3 deficit against the Indians last year. This is not over, and they won't give up. I think their chances are bleak, given everything described above, but they can still make this interesting. Here's why...

Daisuke Matsuzaka pitches tomorrow night. He had a terrific outing in Game 1. The Sox are due to break out the bats, and they are at home, and don't like losing there. I think we can all envision this game being a tough battle, but the Sox could pull out a win. That would make it 2-3 in the series. So, we head back to Tampa Bay for Game 6. Personally, I'd be inclined to pitch Lester in Game 6. He has been brilliant up until his last game, during which he was good, but gave up 2 fatal home runs. Erase those home runs and it was a good outing. So, if Lester bears down and returns to ALDS form, they could win Game 6.

That would set up a Game 7 showdown, which is all we can ask for at this point. Beckett takes the mound, pops a few aspirin, and who knows? So, don't give up yet, but do know you are simply getting outplayed by a very good team right now. Give them some credit for that, as we regroup to take the battle back to them on Thursday. Time to get hot, and go on our own little 7 game winning streak!

Did Anyone Predict That One?

This is why they actually play the games on the field and not just in the newspapers. The Rays playing against the Red Sox in Fenway Park with Jon Lester on the mound? Who wouldn't predict a win for the Sox in that game. Unfortunately, two things went wrong. First, Lester had a bad third inning giving up two home runs accounting for all the runs Tampa Bay would need. The second thing that went wrong is that the Red Sox could not score. The result was a 9-1 loss allowing the Rays to take a 2-1 lead in the series.

If you are a Rays fan, that has to feel good. You know that the series will be returning to Tampa for game 6. You know that the Sox are sending out Tim Wakefield tonight and Wakefield has not pitched in a while, and has been knocked around by the Rays recently. A win tonight by the Rays would put the Sox down 3-1. No team could possibly come back from that, could they? Well, I suppose they could actually.

But, the loss last night certainly was not the plan for the Sox. The plan was to win that game, go up 2-1, and put some pressure on the Rays. Lester kept them in the game. When he left in the 6th inning the Sox were losing 5-0. At the time, it seemed like the Sox might have a chance to close that gap. Up until that point, the Sox had at least one runner on base in every inning and runners in scoring position twice. It seemed that it was just a matter of time until they plated a few runs.

The Sox, however, could not put together the hits in the right order to score. Early in the game, Pedroia, Kotsay, and Bay were getting hits, but no one was driving them in. Later in the game, the bottom of the order was getting on base, but the top was not hitting. The result was that only one run was scored, on a sacrifice fly by Jacoby Ellsbury.

The Sox need a big rally tonight. David Ortiz, Jed Lowrie, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Varitek are all hitless in this series. Tonight, that needs to change. Papi has to cause some damage and bring some power back to the meat of the order. Ellsbury has to get on base and create problems for the defense. Lowrie needs to drive in runs, like he has done so well in the regular season. Varitek needs a rest, and will get one tonight as Wakefield is pitching. he has looked rather inept at the plate, and I think a night or two off to clear his head is in order. Not sure what to do about Papi, but we sure need that bat to come to life.

Sox and Rays Empty All Barrels

Sox fans are feeling a bit queasy as they disembark the roller coaster ride that was game two of the ALCS. The night started when all of us Sox fans wearing our best red shirts with the blue "B"'s on them them boarded the roller coaster car. The ride started out fun as we climbed high up that first hill, lifted by a Jason Bay two run double. But the hill did not last long as we came soaring back down the other side when Josh Beckett gave up a two run, game tying home run to Evan Longoria.

Back up in the third on a Dustin Pedroia solo home run, and back down again when BJ Upton matched the feat and Carl Crawford singled to score Longoria and give the Rays a 4-3 lead. This ride was a real thriller. When Cliff Floyd homered to extend the Rays' lead to 5-3, we thought the ride might be over. But three home runs by the Red Sox in the 5th inning, by Pedroia, Youkilis, and Bay, shot the Red Sox back into the lead.

The thrill was short lived when the Rays scored 3 run of their own in the bottom of the 5th to regain a 2 run lead. We were dizzy, stressed, and begging for the ride attendant to stop the thing. The Sox came back, tied the game, and the end was no where in sight. Into the wee hours of the morning we flew up the hills, down the slopes, around the bends.

Then came the 11th inning. The ride attendant decided to end it for us and sent Mike Timlin in, the final reliever on the roster. Timlin walked the first two batters he faced, and we saw the final bend in the ride approaching. A ground out sent the runners to second and third and Iwamura was intentionally walked as we felt the brakes on the roller coaster car begin to engage. Finally the car pulled up to the exit platform and BJ Upton himself escorted us off the car with a soft sacrifice fly.

Off to bed we all went, the Dramamine long ago worn off. As we slept we could still feel our bodies flying up the hills and soaring back down. It was a restless sleep, and during the night I had a terrible nightmare. I dreamed that the Red Sox were in the ALCS on the brink of a potential second straight World Series appearance. But in the dream, the Sox had lost last year's ALCS MVP. Josh Beckett, in the dream, was ineffective, lacked confidence in his fastball, and got burned with home runs whenever he went after a batter.

Then I woke up, and the dream had come true.

Who Wins the Battle of the Fans, Red Sox or Rays?

Anyone who has watched (or attended) Red Sox games hosted in Tampa Bay has been shocked, awed, and even overwhelmed by the huge amount of Red Sox support in "enemy territory". It is a similar situation in Baltimore, but not to the level that it is in Tampa.

You've all read various articles about the lack of enthusiasm of the Rays fan base, and their late arrival to the show. According to Ballparks of Baseball, Tropicana Field has a seating capacity of 43,772. If that is true, get this. The publicized attendance for the first two ALDS playoff games in Tropicana Field were 35,041 and 35,257. More people attended a mid-September game against the Red Sox (September 17 - attended by 36,048). That means the first two playoff games ever for the Rays had approximately 8,000 empty seats!!!

2008 is the very first season that the Rays have made the playoffs, and did it as AL East Champions. I for one, and very impressed, and if I were in Florida, I'd be incredibly excited about playoff baseball meaning something in my own home town. Where are all the Rays fans? Perhaps there are only 35,000 fans in total, who knows?

Anyway, what I am curious to see tonight, is whether or not the influx of Red Sox fans to the game fills the park, and what the ratio of Red Sox to Rays fans is. Don't you think it would be incredibly embarrassing to get overwhelming cheering and support for the Red Sox that drowns out the local support for the Rays in their own park?

To be honest, I wish that would not happen. It's just not right. The Rays have done something incredible this year, and deserve strong home crowd support. They should not have to suffer through an enormous cheer going up when a Sox player (JD Drew tonight?) hits a home run, or when a Rays player strikes out to end an inning. Not on their own field. Until the Rays fans can muster enough support to sell out a home playoff game, they do not deserve the title.

I know there are good Rays fans out there (at least 30,000 or so). Get out there and support your team!

That all said, a brief moment of business. I'm looking forward to these first two games. Dice-K is strong, healthy and rested. No excuses. He needs to pitch well, keep them in the game, and hopefully get through at least 6 innings, if not 7. Then, the big question will be how Josh Beckett looks in game 2. If we see the Beckett of last year's playoffs, we'll be in good shape. If he pitches like he did in the ALDS, I'm worried. We need to win at least one of those two games, and then return to Boston for 3 straight. We've played the Rays well in Boston, and we would have a chance to turn up the pressure. Losing both in Florida would not be fatal, but would turn this into a slow tug of war as they even it up back at home.

Let's get it on!

Josh Beckett Watch - Game 1 Starter?

I mentioned, buried deep in yesterday's post, what I am watching for regarding Josh Beckett. According to the Red Sox, Josh's health is fine, and his recent oblique strain had nothing to do with his sub-par performance in the ALDS. Apparently, we are simply dealing with some rust.

So, here's the deal on how to see through this. Aside from the fact that Jon Lester is the heir apparent, Josh Beckett is still the "ace" of the Red Sox staff. You want to start your ace in game 1, that is a no-brainer. In this case, we don't need to debate whether or not our ace is really Jon Lester, because starting Lester on Friday in game 1 would be using him on short rest, which is unnecessary at this point, and foolish.

So, the answer is easy. You start Josh Beckett in game 1, unless he is hurting. For Josh, he'd be going on normal 4 days of rest, and if rust is the only concern, getting him out there sooner is better than giving him extra rest. So, if Beckett starts Game 1, the team believes he is fine. If he gets pushed off, maybe he is hurting.

But, we have to consider one more thing, namely Daisuke Matsuzaka. We need Dice-K in the ALCS, and he last pitched on Friday. Starting Dice-K in Game 1 would put him on 6 days rest, which is roughly the norm in Japan. Starting him in Game 2 extends that to 7 days rest, and Game 3 pushes him out to 9 days rest. That is simply too much; it is important to stay sharp. So, I think Dice-K has to pitch game 1 or 2.

There you have it. Josh Beckett and Dice-K are your Game 1 and Game 2 starters. Who goes first? I would guess Dice-K first and then Beckett. That serves two purposes. First, Beckett (who none of us believes is truly fine physically) gets the benefit of one extra day of rest. Second, Dice-K gets to start on 6 days rest, and not 7.

Now, you must be screaming, "what about Lester, the hero of the ALDS?". Don't worry, we've got that covered. Lester starts Game 3, in Boston. That works out quite well, with the only possible drawback being that he will be on 6 days rest. Lester has pitched a lot of innings this year, and I think that the extra rest would be good, he sure is not rusty. But there is more.

Jon Lester has had more success at home compared to on the road (11-1 at home with a 2.49 ERA compared to 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA on the road). So, starting him out at home is a good idea. Also, Lester is 3-0 against the Rays this year in 3 starts, and all three of those starts have come in Fenway Park. That's right, Lester has yet to pitch in Tampa Bay this year. That all should make you feel good about starting him at home in Game 3.

Finally, this allows Lester to be available to pitch in Game 6 on normal rest, or Game 7 on 5 days rest.

So, here is what I would do:

Game 1: Dice-K
Game 2: Beckett
Game 3: Lester
Game 4: Wakefield/Byrd

Game 4 I'd start Wakefield on a short leash. He has stymied the Rays in the past, and he's gotten beaten as well. Start him off, and see how his stuff looks. If he looks sharp, ride him, if not, send Byrd in before the roof collapses.

Now, what about Game 5, 6, and 7? You know, that completely depends on how things have turned out up to now. Is Beckett healthy with no issues? Is he pitching sharp? How about Dice-K? Also, what is the situation? Is the series even 2-2, or are we on the brink of elimination, or the brink of clinching? Is this an emergency or not? Because of all that, I'd wait until after Game 4 to write Game 5's starter in pen. But, for fun, let's say, hypothetically, that the series is even 2-2, and everyone is pitching well and healthy. Based on that, here's what we do...

Game 5: Beckett

Remember, the assumption is he's healthy and pitching well. That puts Beckett on normal rest, and hopefully gets the Sox a win and puts them up 3-2, on the brink of clinching. Now, if Beckett were hurting, this start would go to Dice-K.

But, Game 6 might depend on how Game 5 went. If the Sox won Game 5, pitch Dice-K in Game 6. Why? That puts Dice-K on 7 days rest, and if he is pitching well, he'll be strong and need the work. He also fared better this season on the road, and Game 6 would be in Tampa. Holding him until Game 7 would put him on 8 days rest - too much? Also, if Dice-K can win Game 6, the Sox clinch, and Lester is set up to pitch Game 1 of the World Series in Fenway. Gotta like that! If not, Lester is your guy on the mound in the final Game 7 showdown.

Now, if they lose Game 5 and are down 2-3 and on the brink of being eliminated, I might think differently, but maybe not. If Dice-K was very effective in Game 1, I might want to stick with the strategy, knowing I'd have Lester in Game 7. However, loser goes home, so you might put Lester in Game 6 on normal 4 days of rest to help ensure there will be a Game 7. Then, Game 7 has to go to Dice-K; you just roll the Dice! Of course, in Game 7, it would be all hands on deck, so if Dice-K gets in trouble, you bring in everybody you can.

So, you can see, beyond Game 4, you really have to wait and see how things have gone. Remember in 2004? Derek Lowe was not in the starting rotation, he was relegated to the bullpen for the playoffs. But, guess who started Game 7 of the ALCS? Yes, Derek Lowe. That wasn't the plan, but plans change as the series progresses.

So, a final recap:

Game 1: Dice-K
Game 2: Beckett
Game 3: Lester
Game 4: Wakefield/Byrd
Game 5: Beckett (if Beckett were hurting, it would be Dice-K)
Game 6: Lester (if this is a Sox elimination game) / Dice-K (if this is a Sox clinching game)
Game 7: Lester/Dice-K (depending who went in Game 6)

You can picture how this all changes if there is an injury. Then you are looking at Byrd or Wake taking one of those slots, like Lowe did in 2004.

More to come, including an introduction of a much loved Fenway character.

Mistake-Prone Angels Can't Get it Done

You've heard that pitching and defense wins championships? The Angels brought their pitching to the ALDS, but not so much their defense. As the Angels learned, mistakes are incredibly costly in the post-season. Last night, in the bottom of the 5th inning, the Red Sox had runners at first and third with one out. Jacoby Ellbury hit a text book double play ground ball to Howie Kendrick at second base. A double play ends the inning, and keeps the game scoreless. However, Kendrick, perhaps worried about Ellsbury's speed, rushes the play, bobbles the ball, and only manages to get one out at first base, allowing Mark Kotsay to score from third base, and Jason Varitek to move up to second.

True story. I'm watching the game by myself and as Dustin Pedroia steps up the the plate, hitless so far in the playoffs, I look him in the eye while adopting my best Vito Corleone voice and say to the television, "Pedroia, I told you one day you would owe me a favor. Today is that day. Do this for me." Moments later, I leapt off the couch as Dustin lofted a shot off the Green Monster, sending Varitek home to give the Sox a 2-0 lead. Kendrick's mistake turned a scoreless inning into a 2-0 lead for the Sox, much to the obvious dismay of his starting pitcher, John Lackey. Favor repaid, Dustin!

Jon Lester was amazing, yet again. I am always concerned when a team faces the same pitcher twice in such a short span, but Varitek and Lester worked a plan that kept the Angels guessing. I had my eye on the pitch count, not wanting to go to the bullpen at all if possible. Lester had thrown 96 pitches through 6 innings. Not great. But, Lester breezed through the 7th on 13 pitches, bringing his count to 109. Mid-season, that would be all. Give the shoulder a rest, and get your 8th inning guy out there. But, this is the playoffs, and the bullpen was gassed. So, I was shocked that he did not come out to at least get the 8th inning going. Lester had just retired 8 straight batters, and had shut down the Angels all night. A pit of dread settled into what had been elation only moments before, as I saw Hideki Okajima come in to face the top of the Angels order.

Okajima got the first two outs, but walked Mark Teixeira. With the Angel's big righties coming up, Francona played the odds and brought in Justin Masterson. This worried me even more. Masterson tried to stay away from Guerrero too much, and somehow walked the free swinger. A wild pitch then put runners on 2nd and 3rd, all set up for Tori Hunter's single to right to tie the game at 2. Images of 2004 flashed through my mind, recalling the Red Sox finally exorcising their demons with a huge come from behind rally over their nemesis, the Yankees. Were we witnessing the same for the Angels? Was this the hit that would ignite them? (I thought it was funny later when Masterson, in discussing his contributions, claimed credit for setting up the situation for Lowrie to hit the game winner).

No. Why? Mistakes! Masterson, not being very effective, came back out for the 9th and promptly gave up a double to Kendry Morales. Francona left him out there, correctly guessing the next batter was bunting anyway. Sure enough, a perfect bunt sent Morales to third base with one out, and Manny Delcarmen came in for Masterson. Now it gets fun. The Angles, loving to put pressure on a defense (unfortunately for them, the Sox defense was not making mistakes), decided to go for one of the most exciting plays in baseball, the suicide squeeze.

For anyone who is unfamiliar with the suicide squeeze, here's what happens. The batter is told to bunt to score the runner from third. With a bunt, the ball will be close to home plate, so the runner is heading directly at the ball, thus the "suicide" part. In order for this to work, the runner has to take off with the pitch to get as big of a jump as possible, also part of the "suicide". If the batter fails to lay down the bunt, the runner is dead. Well, that last sentence just gave away the ending. Delcarmen threw a nasty 96 mph fastball right into Erick Aybar's gut. Aybar would love to bunt towards first, but that pitch is impossible to do that with. Regardless, the play is on and the runner is on his way, so Aybar takes a swipe at it and misses. The runner, Morales, was dead meat, halfway down the third base line. Jason Varitek caught the pitch cleanly and charged down the third base line like a mother rhino protecting her young. After a fake throw to third, 'Tek dove towards Morales, tagged him cleanly and landed on his chest in the dirt. The ball, after the glove contacted the ground, skipped away, but too late. The tag had been applied, the bases were clear, the threat was erased. Man, talk about exciting playoff ball.

Now I thought, maybe we can win this. Maybe the Angels are just too tense, too nervous, thinking too much about their own demons to win. Ninth inning. JD Drew strikes out - not his night to be a hero. Jason Bay then sends a shot down the right field line. Another Angels mistake. The right fielder, Reggie Willits, tries to be a hero and dives at the ball, but he never stood a chance. He landed on his face as the ball shot past. He did catch a break when the ball bounced up into the stands for a ground rule double. Had the ball stayed fair, he would have had a long run to chase it down, and Bay would surely have ended the series with an inside the park home run! But, alas, Bay was forced to stop at second base.

Up steps Mark Kotsay. Now, Mark's wife's grandmother has just passed away, and Mark is in Boston, fighting for his team, but missing the funeral. He has had a terrific night, making two terrific outfield-like defensive plays at first base, and scoring the first run of the game. This one felt right. Another true story. I looked to the sky and implored to his wife's grandmother. I said, "Grammy, you know he wanted to be there for you. Help him honor your memory, help him put some power into his bat". Sure enough, Grammy sends a jolt of spiritual energy shooting into the bat (you could see the blue flame on high-def), and Kotsay rips a shot down the 1st base line heading towards the corner, sure to score Bay from second easily. But, using angels to battle the Angels does not work. Mark Teixeira must have an angel of his own, because his body lunged with cobra-like speed to his left, and with his body fully stretched, the ball somehow snapped into his glove for out number two. Luckily the play happened so fast that Jason Bay had no time to take off from second.

Remember Hank Steinbrenner whining that the Yankees failure this year was all due to injury? All that money apparently cannot allow them to buy enough depth to overcome that. Hopefully he watched last night as the Sox moved ahead to the ALCS, even though they had to suffer through injuries. Mike Lowell has been officially put on the injured list and is out for the next series too. The starting shortstop, Julio Lugo, has been out for months and will miss the playoffs. JD Drew missed most of September, Josh Beckett was reduces to one start in the ALDS from an oblique injury. How'd that work with the Sox missing the 2007 ALCS MVP at full strength, and their starting left side of the infield out? It worked pretty well.

Jed Lowrie, a minor league call-up, filling in at shortstop, and playing in his first post-season, stepped up to the plate in the 9th inning, two outs, and Jason Bay at second. Lowrie did not carry a bat to the plate. He carried a pen, and he used that pen to write his name on the pages of Red Sox lore. The Angles were still pumped up from Teixeira's terrific catch (finally, some clutch defense) when Lowrie's sharp ground ball found the hole between first and second base. Jason Bay was waved home, running faster with each step. In what took a split second to us mere mortals, must have lasted minutes to Bay. Like in those dreams when you are trying to run, but never seem to get closer, that's what home plate must have looked like to Bay. But, run he did, and as he approached, he dove with every ounce of power in his body, slapped the plate with his left hand, and flew into the arms of his new, proud, teammates.

I felt all along that, if the Sox were to have hopes of repeating, they'd have to go through the Angels at some point. I'm glad it was in a short 5 games series. The big 7 game series is looming now, and it is against our very own AL East Rays! Can you believe it?

I know, everyone is wondering, "is Josh Beckett hurting, or is he truly healthy, like they want us to believe?". Well, here is how you can tell. The first game of the ALCS is this Friday. Josh Beckett is the Red Sox ace (apologies to Lester who has become at least a co-ace). Beckett pitched on Sunday, and his next regular start on 4 days rest would be Friday. Having your ace start in the first game of a series is the best possible scenario. So, here's how you tell if Beckett is truly healthy. If he gets the start Friday, he's healthy (or has fooled the Sox medical staff). If he is not healthy, and would benefit from more rest and rehab, then he won't get the start. Simple as that.

I love this time of year! What a series - thank you LAA Angels! You made this tough, fun, and incredibly entertaining. Head home, heads held high, and get ready to do it again next year. By the way, don't be foolish and let Teixeira get away - you need him.

(Photos Courtesy of ESPN)

No Angels in the Outfield

If you haven't noticed, there certainly are no "angels" in the outfield. The Angels beat the Red Sox last night in their 12th try in the 12th inning (hmm), and it was in spite of, not because of the outfield. In game 1, we saw a Jacoby Ellsbury drive result in an error-induced triple. Last night, a lazy, high fly ball dropped harmlessly in mid-center field with two outs. What should have been an inning-ending catch turned into a bases clearing 3 run triple. Maybe it is just Ellsbury knowing where their weak spots are.

So, I spent this weekend in the deep remote woods of Maine, well out of contact with the rest of mankind. When we finally re-emerged back into civilization, I was pleasantly shocked to learn the Sox won game two of the series thanks to a JD Drew 2 run home run in the ninth. "My God", I thought, "now the poor Angels have to face Josh Beckett in a must win playoff game". Well, we've seen it all season long, but no one in Red Sox Nation has been quite willing to fully admit it. The 2008 Josh Beckett is not the 2007 version.

Right from the first batter, it looked like Beckett was not on. He looked (to me) tentative with his fastball, and throwing more breaking pitches than usual. Some of those were terrific, but his game was not the same we saw in last year's playoffs. But, I give him credit for fighting and battling through it. But, when we saw Vladimir Guerrero actually draw a walk, you knew things were not good. But, the Angels have been unafraid of Beckett all season, and last night was no exception.

Yes, the Red Sox lost, but we all knew the streak of 11 straight playoff victories against the Angels had to come to an end eventually, right? We knew they had good pitching, and last night they out pitched the Sox. Yes, Angels starter, Joe Saunders, gave up 4 earned runs, just like Beckett, but three of those were unearned in my eyes, thanks to the outfield blunder mentioned earlier. Had they made that catch, the Sox lose 4-1, which is pretty much how the game played out.

With Dustin Pedroia, Big Papi, Jason Bay, and Mike Lowell all going hitless, the Sox were not going to do a whole lot of scoring. With the score tied in the ninth, and in extra innings, someone has to score. They came close in the 10th, loading the bases with a single and two walks, but Jed Lowrie's line drive to right center field did not find the gap, but found leather instead. Terry Francona threw every batter from the bench into the game, looking for lightning in one of those bottles, but all bottles were empty. Only Sean Casey remained on the bench. Of course, now we can all wonder what would have happened had Casey gone in, but there is not much point in that. That is simply one possible past that never took place.

So, what next? First step, sit Mike Lowell down. He's obviously a valiant warrior who wants so badly to help us win, but in his current state, he cannot. He needs rest, and we need take him out of further harm's way. Next, get JD Drew back in right. He's a talented hitter who saved game two, and we need that bat in the game. Then, watch Jon Lester pitch in his favorite location, on the Fenway Park mound. The Sox need to lock this series down tonight, with their best pitcher, at home. If not, how comfortable do you feel about facing the Angels on the west coast with Dice-K on the mound? 50/50? We need to simply lock this one up, now that we still have the Angels on the ropes, and get a small rest before moving forward. One tip to Lester...cover first base! The Sox missed out on two putout opportunities due to Beckett being slow to first, and on one play, Youk killed himself to make a play solo, just to make sure of the out. Come on guys - fundamentals.

(Photos Courtesy of ESPN)

Playoffs Kickoff Today! WWRD?

WWRD (What Would Rooster Do)? Okay, this series is going to be tough. The Angels are the top team in the American, which is hard to argue given their 100-62 record. The addition of Mark Teixeira to the lineup has given them more offense, but they are still a team that likes to be aggressive on the base paths and put pressure on opposing defenses with frequent displays of small ball. Their pitching across the board, and been very good, particularly in the bullpen. So, where do we go from here?

Okay, first of all, the Sox do not want to let the Angels take control of the game with small ball. To do that, they need to keep the Angels off the bases. Jon Lester is an excellent option for the first game. Being a lefty, he can also keep a sharper eye on runners at first base. So, I think the strategy to focus on is defense. The Sox need to give Lester all the support they can. Mike Lowell is the Red Sox' best option at third base, but he is still hobbled. Unless the medical staff indicates he is near 100%, I'd sit Mike and reserve him for pinch hitting duty. We all saw Lowell come up lame when he had to field a slow grounder barehanded and make the quick throw to first. The Angels saw that too. They know he is vulnerable to a bunt. We do not want to open that door for them, nor do we want Lowell to re-aggravate the injury on the first inning of the first game.

Instead, play Jed Lowrie at third, with Alex Cora at shortstop. That is their best defense on the left side of the infield right now. That also allows Kevin Youkilis to play first, where he is having a gold glove caliber year. First base will be important, and Sean Casey and Mark Kotsay are only adequate backups there. Of course, Dustin Pedroia and Jason Varitek round out the infield.

The question in the outfield is JD Drew. Drew claims he is 100% ready. The Sox definitely need some power in the batting order, and Drew is a very good outfielder, so I'd be inclined to use him in right. The only worry I have for Drew is his lack of playing time this September causing his timing to not be sharp yet. I am encouraged that he got two tune up games in before the season ended, but he did nothing special in those games. It is a bit of a chance, but we've seen the impact his bat can have in the post season.

So, obviously Jason Bay plays left field. Who is in center? That's easy, Jacoby Ellsbury. Coco Crisp went on a tear in early September, but has cooled off since then. From September 9th until the end of the season, Crisp only had 8 hits, batting .210 with 3 doubles, but no triples or home runs, and he also had no stolen bases. Contrast that with Ellsbury who ended the season with a 16 game hitting streak going back to September 10th. In that time, Ellsbury had 28 hits batting .389 with 2 home runs, 1 triple, 7 doubles, and 5 stolen bases. They are reasonably close defensively, so clearly the nod goes to Ellsbury.

Then, you manage the game situations. Crisp is now available to pinch run in late game situations, or to take over for Drew if Drew's back flares up. Sean Casey and Mark Kotsay are available to pinch hit in late innings with the game on the line, as well as Mike Lowell. If we are ahead in the game, keep the solid defense all the way. If we are tied or trailing, try firing those bigger guns to get the late inning lead.

Lastly, what about John Lackey, the Angels starter? I just can't get to worried about that somehow. Lackey has had a good year, but not a great year. This season he went 12-5 with a 3.75 ERA. That is good, but last year he had a 19-9 record with a 3.01 record. That is better. Last year the Sox rolled over Lackey in the playoffs. But, this year Lackey beat Boston twice in two starts. At home he went 7 innings and gave up 3 runs, and in Boston he went 9 innings giving up only 2 late game runs. And yet, in his last regular season start, he got destroyed by Texas giving up 10 earned runs in less than 3 innings.

So, which Lackey are we going to see? Who knows. But, I would be surprised if the Sox do not get to Lackey at least by the 6th inning. But, if you are concerned about Lackey, I'll support your concern with this tidbit. In 2008, only three Red Sox batters have gotten a hit off of Lackey, and one of those three is Manny Ramirez (who went 2 for 5). That's right. Dustin Pedroia is 3 for 6, and Kevin Youkilis is 2 for 7. No other Red Sox batter has a single hit against Lackey in 2008. Granted, Jason Bay, Jed Lowrie, and Coco Crisp have yet to face Lackey this year, so perhaps there is a surprise coming from one of them?

So, you are armed and ready. Nothing left for us to do but watch, cheer, and be fascinated by the unfolding events. The Red Sox have historically been part of some incredibly exciting and memorable playoff moments. The 1975 World Series. The 1986 comeback against the Angels in the ALCS, and the dramatic World Series loss to the Mets. The 1999 ALDS battle with Cleveland, the 2003 dramatic loss to the Yankees, and the 2004 incredible comeback for revenge. Even last year, we watched as the Sox, behind Josh Beckett, erased a 3-1 game deficit to the Indians to go on to win a second 21st century World Series. I don't necessarily expect another World Series this year, but I do expect some excitement.

Let the games begin!

Beckett's Impact on the ALDS

Well, the Red Sox' 2008 season has a clear theme. Reliable starting players get injured and the Sox rely on minor league call-ups, bench players, and trade acquisitions to step up, contribute, and keep winning. The injuries did have a toll, but they just kept bouncing back (unlike our lovable rivals from the Big Apple). That theme will have to continue through the playoffs if the Sox want a shot at back to back World Championships.

While Terry Francona was carefully manipulating his game lineup to do his best to minimize the risk of a last minute injury to a key player, the injury demon attacked Tito from the rear in the safe confines of the bullpen. Josh Beckett experienced a pull in his side on about the 40th pitch of his bullpen session on Sunday. The injury appears to be a fairly mild oblique strain, and that is enough to knock a pitcher out. After all the radio debates on who should be the Sox' #1 pitcher, and who should be the #4, the situation has forced Terry's hand. Beckett will not start until Game 3 in Boston on Sunday the 5th. That is a full week after the injury happened. If it is indeed a mild strain, that may just be enough time. But, Beckett will not only need to be much improved physically, he'll also need to have solid mental confidence that he can let it loose without worry. That is the real trick. If he is tentative, he'll get eaten alive.

Which brings us to an interesting question. How devastating is the move of Beckett to the #3 spot against the Angels? In the end, it might possibly be a good move. We think of Beckett in terms of what he did last year. Based on that, we practically want him pitching in every single post season game! But, if we get rational for a minute, we have to admit that he is NOT pitching like he did last year, especially in the second half. that doesn't mean he won't have a good playoff run, it just is something we have to admit. Second, Beckett has faced the Angels twice this year, with poor results both times. Overall, he is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA in those starts, a 4-2 loss on the road when he gave up 4 runs in the 7th inning, and a 9-2 loss in Fenway when he gave up 7 earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings.

Maybe this year's Beckett is not cut out to beat the Angels. Many fans have argued that Jon Lester is currently our best pitcher, and Dice-K is right up there with him. Oh, and the 4th starter? We should not need one, based on the current plan. Lester will open the series in Anaheim on Wednesday, and then will be ready to pitch in game 4 in Boston on Monday the 6th. Dice-K will pitch game 2 on Friday in Anaheim and will be ready to start game 5, also in Anaheim, on Wednesday the 8th. Beckett gets the hump game - right in the middle.

So, this series, unlike last year, rests not on Beckett's shoulders, but on Lester's and Matsuzaka's. The injury theme also plays out with the position players. Mike Lowell may not be able to play in game 1 of the series, and if he plays at all, he certainly won't be 100%. JD Drew appears ready to play, but a herniated disc in his back will surely keep him from being 100% either. With Manny Ramirez slugging for Joe Torre these days, and Lowell and Drew either out or not 100%, the Sox are packing much less punch than they had planned.

Especially against the Angels, the Sox may need to put a little more emphasis on small ball. If Drew can't go, having both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp out there will not only create a solid outfield, but also put some speed on the bases. Get these guys on, run aggressively, and hopefully have men in scoring position when the big guns, like Dustin Pedroia, come up to bat.

So, we have what we have to deal with. We still have good starting pitching to throw at the Angels, a rested bullpen, and some pretty serious players who have proven all year they are ready to step up and contribute. On Wednesday, the battle begins. This year, the Angels think they can finally get past Boston, but the Red Sox are out to make them work for it.

More great stuff coming up, including a look at an interesting Fenway Park character - a Rational Sox Fan exclusive.