Playoffs Kickoff Today! WWRD?

WWRD (What Would Rooster Do)? Okay, this series is going to be tough. The Angels are the top team in the American, which is hard to argue given their 100-62 record. The addition of Mark Teixeira to the lineup has given them more offense, but they are still a team that likes to be aggressive on the base paths and put pressure on opposing defenses with frequent displays of small ball. Their pitching across the board, and been very good, particularly in the bullpen. So, where do we go from here?

Okay, first of all, the Sox do not want to let the Angels take control of the game with small ball. To do that, they need to keep the Angels off the bases. Jon Lester is an excellent option for the first game. Being a lefty, he can also keep a sharper eye on runners at first base. So, I think the strategy to focus on is defense. The Sox need to give Lester all the support they can. Mike Lowell is the Red Sox' best option at third base, but he is still hobbled. Unless the medical staff indicates he is near 100%, I'd sit Mike and reserve him for pinch hitting duty. We all saw Lowell come up lame when he had to field a slow grounder barehanded and make the quick throw to first. The Angels saw that too. They know he is vulnerable to a bunt. We do not want to open that door for them, nor do we want Lowell to re-aggravate the injury on the first inning of the first game.

Instead, play Jed Lowrie at third, with Alex Cora at shortstop. That is their best defense on the left side of the infield right now. That also allows Kevin Youkilis to play first, where he is having a gold glove caliber year. First base will be important, and Sean Casey and Mark Kotsay are only adequate backups there. Of course, Dustin Pedroia and Jason Varitek round out the infield.

The question in the outfield is JD Drew. Drew claims he is 100% ready. The Sox definitely need some power in the batting order, and Drew is a very good outfielder, so I'd be inclined to use him in right. The only worry I have for Drew is his lack of playing time this September causing his timing to not be sharp yet. I am encouraged that he got two tune up games in before the season ended, but he did nothing special in those games. It is a bit of a chance, but we've seen the impact his bat can have in the post season.

So, obviously Jason Bay plays left field. Who is in center? That's easy, Jacoby Ellsbury. Coco Crisp went on a tear in early September, but has cooled off since then. From September 9th until the end of the season, Crisp only had 8 hits, batting .210 with 3 doubles, but no triples or home runs, and he also had no stolen bases. Contrast that with Ellsbury who ended the season with a 16 game hitting streak going back to September 10th. In that time, Ellsbury had 28 hits batting .389 with 2 home runs, 1 triple, 7 doubles, and 5 stolen bases. They are reasonably close defensively, so clearly the nod goes to Ellsbury.

Then, you manage the game situations. Crisp is now available to pinch run in late game situations, or to take over for Drew if Drew's back flares up. Sean Casey and Mark Kotsay are available to pinch hit in late innings with the game on the line, as well as Mike Lowell. If we are ahead in the game, keep the solid defense all the way. If we are tied or trailing, try firing those bigger guns to get the late inning lead.

Lastly, what about John Lackey, the Angels starter? I just can't get to worried about that somehow. Lackey has had a good year, but not a great year. This season he went 12-5 with a 3.75 ERA. That is good, but last year he had a 19-9 record with a 3.01 record. That is better. Last year the Sox rolled over Lackey in the playoffs. But, this year Lackey beat Boston twice in two starts. At home he went 7 innings and gave up 3 runs, and in Boston he went 9 innings giving up only 2 late game runs. And yet, in his last regular season start, he got destroyed by Texas giving up 10 earned runs in less than 3 innings.

So, which Lackey are we going to see? Who knows. But, I would be surprised if the Sox do not get to Lackey at least by the 6th inning. But, if you are concerned about Lackey, I'll support your concern with this tidbit. In 2008, only three Red Sox batters have gotten a hit off of Lackey, and one of those three is Manny Ramirez (who went 2 for 5). That's right. Dustin Pedroia is 3 for 6, and Kevin Youkilis is 2 for 7. No other Red Sox batter has a single hit against Lackey in 2008. Granted, Jason Bay, Jed Lowrie, and Coco Crisp have yet to face Lackey this year, so perhaps there is a surprise coming from one of them?

So, you are armed and ready. Nothing left for us to do but watch, cheer, and be fascinated by the unfolding events. The Red Sox have historically been part of some incredibly exciting and memorable playoff moments. The 1975 World Series. The 1986 comeback against the Angels in the ALCS, and the dramatic World Series loss to the Mets. The 1999 ALDS battle with Cleveland, the 2003 dramatic loss to the Yankees, and the 2004 incredible comeback for revenge. Even last year, we watched as the Sox, behind Josh Beckett, erased a 3-1 game deficit to the Indians to go on to win a second 21st century World Series. I don't necessarily expect another World Series this year, but I do expect some excitement.

Let the games begin!

Beckett's Impact on the ALDS

Well, the Red Sox' 2008 season has a clear theme. Reliable starting players get injured and the Sox rely on minor league call-ups, bench players, and trade acquisitions to step up, contribute, and keep winning. The injuries did have a toll, but they just kept bouncing back (unlike our lovable rivals from the Big Apple). That theme will have to continue through the playoffs if the Sox want a shot at back to back World Championships.

While Terry Francona was carefully manipulating his game lineup to do his best to minimize the risk of a last minute injury to a key player, the injury demon attacked Tito from the rear in the safe confines of the bullpen. Josh Beckett experienced a pull in his side on about the 40th pitch of his bullpen session on Sunday. The injury appears to be a fairly mild oblique strain, and that is enough to knock a pitcher out. After all the radio debates on who should be the Sox' #1 pitcher, and who should be the #4, the situation has forced Terry's hand. Beckett will not start until Game 3 in Boston on Sunday the 5th. That is a full week after the injury happened. If it is indeed a mild strain, that may just be enough time. But, Beckett will not only need to be much improved physically, he'll also need to have solid mental confidence that he can let it loose without worry. That is the real trick. If he is tentative, he'll get eaten alive.

Which brings us to an interesting question. How devastating is the move of Beckett to the #3 spot against the Angels? In the end, it might possibly be a good move. We think of Beckett in terms of what he did last year. Based on that, we practically want him pitching in every single post season game! But, if we get rational for a minute, we have to admit that he is NOT pitching like he did last year, especially in the second half. that doesn't mean he won't have a good playoff run, it just is something we have to admit. Second, Beckett has faced the Angels twice this year, with poor results both times. Overall, he is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA in those starts, a 4-2 loss on the road when he gave up 4 runs in the 7th inning, and a 9-2 loss in Fenway when he gave up 7 earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings.

Maybe this year's Beckett is not cut out to beat the Angels. Many fans have argued that Jon Lester is currently our best pitcher, and Dice-K is right up there with him. Oh, and the 4th starter? We should not need one, based on the current plan. Lester will open the series in Anaheim on Wednesday, and then will be ready to pitch in game 4 in Boston on Monday the 6th. Dice-K will pitch game 2 on Friday in Anaheim and will be ready to start game 5, also in Anaheim, on Wednesday the 8th. Beckett gets the hump game - right in the middle.

So, this series, unlike last year, rests not on Beckett's shoulders, but on Lester's and Matsuzaka's. The injury theme also plays out with the position players. Mike Lowell may not be able to play in game 1 of the series, and if he plays at all, he certainly won't be 100%. JD Drew appears ready to play, but a herniated disc in his back will surely keep him from being 100% either. With Manny Ramirez slugging for Joe Torre these days, and Lowell and Drew either out or not 100%, the Sox are packing much less punch than they had planned.

Especially against the Angels, the Sox may need to put a little more emphasis on small ball. If Drew can't go, having both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp out there will not only create a solid outfield, but also put some speed on the bases. Get these guys on, run aggressively, and hopefully have men in scoring position when the big guns, like Dustin Pedroia, come up to bat.

So, we have what we have to deal with. We still have good starting pitching to throw at the Angels, a rested bullpen, and some pretty serious players who have proven all year they are ready to step up and contribute. On Wednesday, the battle begins. This year, the Angels think they can finally get past Boston, but the Red Sox are out to make them work for it.

More great stuff coming up, including a look at an interesting Fenway Park character - a Rational Sox Fan exclusive.