Let's Go Beckett - Where's Big Papi?

When Abner Doubleday came down from the mountains and showed everyone the commandments etched in stone by the baseball gods, the first commandment said, "Thou shalt not walk thy leadoff batter". Kyle Snyder definitely owes us twenty readings of "Casey at the Bat" as penance for walking both the leadoff batter and the second batter of the 6th inning. Of course, both batters scored, and Brian Corey conspired with Snyder to open the floodgates for Toronto as they built up an insurmountable 10-2 lead. Corey was intent on getting that Toronto lead up there. When Snyder came out, he left with men on second and third and one out, thanks to a sacrifice bunt. Then Corey came in and gave up a single to David Eckstein that scored the two baserunners, followed by a pop-out by Matt Stairs. So, two outs, runner on first, time to stop the bleeding and get back to the dugout? No, not yet. Corey then proceeded to give up a double, a single, and a home run to the big guy, Frank Thomas. The good news from there is that Julian Tavares came in and finished off the last 2 1/3 innings and looked very good!

Any rational Sox fan knows that someone was going to get taken off the active roster to make room for Josh Beckett's return, as it has been prophesied (sorry, got stuck in biblical mode again for a second there). Sox fans now had two finalists to be cut on their scorecards. In a bit of a surprise, the cut goes to Karl Snyder. Why a surprise? Because Karl does not have an option to go to Pawtucket and be called up later.

One last note on pitching. Starter Clay Bucholz looked better than he has looked this spring. He gave up 3 earned runs in 5 innings on 6 hits, 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. He showed some toughness, which is very promising. The second inning started with a walk and two singles scoring a run, but rather than let things get out of control, he struck out the next two batters followed by a pop-up to end the inning. He got into trouble again in the 4th, and may have gotten out of it with less damage, but for an error by first baseman Sean Casey filling in for the error-free Kevin Youkilis. The good sign here was when Bucholz came back out in the 5th and had an easy 1-2-3 inning.

Last note. Again, the Sox offense looked pretty inept. When is someone other than JD Drew going to start hitting (just had to write that sentence for my man JD). Seriously. It is very easy in a 10-2 loss to point all the fingers at the pitching. But, if the Sox only score 2 runs, the ONLY way they can win is to hold the opponent to zero or 1 run. That's pretty easy math, but while Snyder and Corey provided Toronto with a huge lead, and an emotional let down for the Sox, the game was over once the Blue Jays scored their 3rd run in the 4th inning.

Where do fingers point for that? I hate to say it but Big Papi is a key culprit. Toronto has been employing the "shift" against David Ortiz, and it seems to have him off balance, more so than I've seen in the past. I think he is in a little bit of a slump. Combine that with looking out at the field and seeing all of your hot areas covered, and you can find yourself really pressing. The Sox have played 6 games this season, and so far, in 22 at-bats, Papi has a mere 2 hits creating a .091 batting average. Manny Ramirez is faring better, batting .250 with 6 hits in 24 at bats, but he, along with Ortiz, has been batting poorly in the clutch. Just look at last night, for example. Second inning, runners on first and second with one out and Ortiz grounds out to first sending runners to 2nd and third. That opens up first base, so they intentionally walk Manny, and Lowell, who also has had a slow start, softly lines out to end the inning. Then, in the 7th inning with one out and runners at second and third, Ortiz strikes out and Manny grounds out to end the threat.

So, you're a little worried about pitching? You should be worried about offense.

Yankee review tomorrow - how is the enemy looking this year?

Wrapping up pre-season

Finally, the real season is upon us - again. Never put too much credence in exhibition/practice games, but once again the Sox looked far less than stellar. The only hit they managed in last night's game was from Bobby Kielty in the 8th inning. Jet lag? Hmm. As for pitching, we are seeing how difficult it can be to crack the majors. Clay Bucholz struggled last night getting pulled after walking the first two batters of the 4th. His line was not good. A couple of observations. First, he probably had less pressure last year in his couple of starts. He knew he was just up for a spot start, and just let loose. It is different when your mentality is to earn a permanent job and be impressive day in and day out. Second, there is now a scouting report on Clay - one that did not exist last year. As he says himself, batters are not swinging at his setup pitches like they did last year. He has good stuff, but needs to take that step up to the next level.

Speaking of Bobby Kielty, he should be making a decision today on whether he'll accept a trip to Pawtucket, or ask for his release. He does not have a problem staying, but I think his agent is trying to get him a good offer elsewhere. Can't blame him for taking a regular major league job rather than play in the minors. I think he is a nice addition though. With JD Drew/Jacoby Ellsbury both left handed batters, Bobby gives them a right handed option that they'll miss.

Speaking of JD Drew, I hear people getting on his case again on the radio today. Come on people, back off. He's injured, let him work through it. It amazes me how people love to assume players dog it. Not easy with the level of scrutiny they get from trainers every day. Beckett is out with back troubles, so is Drew. They are both on our side, give them the same respect. JD Drew is a terrific outfielder, and has a lot of talent at the plate. Last year was an off year for him, but he had a lot going on at home juggling a pregnant wife, and a son going through some serious medical problems. He stepped up in the playoffs when we needed him the most, and he looked great this spring until he got hurt. His second season should be better (ala Josh Beckett last year).

Speaking of Japan (well I started the other paragraphs that way), the Sox signed a 26 year old talent from Japan. Terumasa Matsuo (why does that name remind me of my favorite Italian dessert) was the MVP of his league last season going 15-3 with 159 strikeouts and a 1.72 era. Of course, that does not translate into MLB numbers, but he clearly has some talent. He's reporting to extended spring training this week, but keep an eye on him. He could be interesting.

Two down, 160 to go

Again, this trip to Japan is definitely odd. The season has started and the Sox are 1-1, but now we go back to playing exhibition games? I'm sorry, but I just don't like that. But, I do like the fact that the Sox are getting a chance to recover a bit from the travel before jumping into the next game.

What happened in game 2? Well, bottom line is the Sox ran into a very good pitcher having a very good day. Rich Harden looked terrific in his 2008 debut, and A's fans should be very happy about that. He more or less mowed down a good hitting lineup. He went 6 innings, striking out 9 batters while only allowing 3 hits. Very impressive. The downside for Harden was the home run to Manny, along with 3 walks. The Sox bats were cooled off enough that they managed only 2 more hits and 4 more strike outs after Harden's exit from the game following the 6th inning. Thirteen strikeouts in one game for the Sox? Not a proud offensive showing.

Lester looked decent and kept the Sox in the game. His control was off enough that batters were able to work the count on him and get his pitch count up, leading to an earlier than desired exit. I like Lester, and I expect he'll be a reasonably reliable 4th or 5th man in the rotation. I don't see him going much beyond that yet, unless he can consistently lock his command down, which he has only shown glimpses of so far.

What to watch for next...

Bartolo Colon will be getting the start in the first exhibition game against the Dodgers. He's still looking good, and a good start in that game may accelerate his time table. As a Sox fan, your biggest worry right now should be who will fill Schilling's spot in the rotation. You have heard that last year's Championship team is nearly untouched, so why not will it all again? Well, without Schilling, the all-important starting rotation has a hole. Last year we had Schilling, Beckett, Dice-K, and Wakefield as the core of the rotation (granted Schilling was injured for a period of time, but follow along for a minute). The 5th spot was filled admirably by Tavares and then Lester in September. Without Schilling, we need to rely on someone like Clay Bucholz to step up. But, as a rookie, I'd look for him to be a 4th or 5th man in the rotation. That bumps Wakefield up to 3rd in the rotation.

So, to me, Colon could turn the season around. If he gets back to even close to his potential, he clearly fits in as either the number 2 or 3 man, leaving Wake in the 4th slot, and allowing more flexibility for Francona to work the hot hand into the 5th slot. With an effective Colon added to the rotation, the Sox would have the nod over the Yankees on pitching. Without him, it's a draw.

I never thought I'd be cheering for Colon. Times change.

Red Sox Pitching Progress

You've heard it a million times now - pitching wins championships. The point being that solid pitching is the foundation a team needs to start from. So, how does the pitching situation look for the Red Sox so far? Very promising!

Bad news - Schilling is out for a significant period of time. A healthy Schilling eats up innings, provides a solid veteran presence, can handle pressure, and is a proven post-season star. He will be missed, but that is nearly all the bad news!

Positives:

It was very confusing last year why Dice-K looked so good earlier in games, and earlier in the season. For a while, hitters were incredibly off balance, than later they were not. Well, according to pitching coach John Farrell, they discovered Dice-K was tipping his change-up. Not a good thing. The change-up is a fairly easy pitch to hit - IF you know it is coming. The change-up is a stealth pitch. To the batter, the pitcher looks like he is throwing a fast ball. However, due to a different way of gripping the ball, the pitch comes in roughly 10 miles per hour slower. It will either confuse the batter long enough to force him to take the pitch, or get him swinging too early. Anyway (you know all that already), if the batter knows it is coming, watch out! So, they've worked with Dice-K on perfecting the change-up and early indications are that the adjustments are working! This can make a huge difference!

Bartolo Colon looks like a steal so far. Throwing very well, mechanics are solid, and arm strength is great! If he keeps this up, don't be surprised he works his way into the #3 spot in the rotation! But, coming off of injuries the past two years, my concern is whether the elbow will last an entire season, or get sore again?

Tim Wakefield seems to be over his back issues and throwing well. Beckett is in better shape than last year and looks poised to dominate again! John Lester looked good in his last outing, and got some important post season experience last year.

As of today, my starting 5 for the Sox:
1) Josh Beckett (obviously)
2) Daisuke Matsuzaka (look for at least as good of a year as last year)
3) Bartolo Colon (presuming the elbow stays strong - may start in AAA for the first game or two)
4) Tim Wakefield (an effective knuckler keeps batters uncomfortable)
5) John Lester (nice to have a left starter)

Bullpen:
Julian Tavarez - long relief - spot starter
Karl Snyder - long relief - spot starter
Mike Timlin - middle relief - occasional setup man - spot closer
Manny Delcarmen - middle relief
Javier Lopez - need a lefty in the 'pen
Hideki Okajima - setup man - occasional closer
Jonathan Papelbon - Closer

Buchholz or Hansack may start the season with Boston if Colon is not ready. They'll probably spend most of their time in Pawtucket, and get called up as needed. If there is a significant injury, or they simply shine, they may stick longer. Gronkiewicz, Corey, Tejera and Masterson are all potential call ups as needed, but expect them to play mostly in the minors. They would be available to replace Tavarez, Snyder or Lopez if they aren't getting the job done.

That leaves Craig Hansen. So far, he still looks disappointing. He hit the Sox with such promise, but has shown very little since then. He throw very well, has a strong arm, but just can't get guys out. Not sure if it is mental, or perhaps predictability. Hopefully he can turn it around this year and start moving up!

Where are the young pitchers?

It is VERY early still, and spring training is going very smoothly for the Red Sox. Everyone is healthy, progressing well, and getting the work in.

But, have you noticed how the veteran pitchers are outshining the youngsters so far? The Red Sox have terrific depth in their young pitchers, and with the success we saw from guys like Lester and Buchholz last fall, I think we all are looking for the young guys to make a big splash this year. Alternatively, I usually see the veteran pitchers easing through spring training, not looking so good early on, but trying to peak for opening day.

Well, so far that has been backward in Fort Myers. The youth are starting the slowest (Lester 36.0 ERA, Hansen 18.0 ERA, Buchholz 18.0 ERA, Jackson 27.0 ERA, Gronkiewicz 10.12 ERA). These stats are based on no more than 2.2 innings of work, but it is interesting seeing the young guys starting out so slow.

The "veterans" (some of whom are pretty young too) are looking pretty strong out of the gates. Dice-K 1.80 ERA, Snyder 0.00 ERA, Wakefield 0.00 ERA, Timlin 0.00 ERA, Papelbon 0.00 ERA, and Okajima 0.00 ERA. Beckett has not pitched in an "official" game yet (pitching once to Boston College and once in a 'B' game) but he also has a 0.00 ERA and his only complaint is that he's too strong (overthrowing the fastball and getting too much elevation on it early in the game).

So, the older guys look good - Sox fans need to be happy about that. The young guys? Well, give them more work - plenty of time left.