Anemic Offense - where's the bullpen?

I'm going to presume you watched the game. If so - you saw the Sox are not playing like a Champion caliber team right now. Josh Beckett looked very good, better than Roy Halladay, until he began to tire a bit in the fifth inning. When I say he tired, I do not mean basic arm strength. What I mean is that there are a lot of intricate mechanics involved in throwing a pitch not only 98 miles per hour, but also within an inch or two of where you want it to go. In the 5th, he was still throwing strong (his changeup was effective at 91 mph), but he was starting to lose his location - that was mostly due to his conditioning needing to stretch out a little more to get him over 100 pitches while maintaining all the necessary mechanics. With two outs, he gave up a single, followed by two walks. Now, this puts Terry Francona in a tough spot. It is early in the season, your ace is coming off of a back injury and has not gone too deep yet. He just walked two straight batters, and Frank Thomas is coming to the plate. On the one hand, Beckett is such a competitor, he may bear down and get that last out (that might have been my guess). On the other hand, his control may be done, and Thomas will kill him. Terry decided to go with a fresh arm, and on one pitch, Manny Delcarmen left a pitch out over the plate, and Thomas ended the game with his 11th career grand slam.

Yes, that ended the game. Again, the Sox (other than JD Drew!) are having a tough time hitting right now. What does the box score tell you? There are two things that should jump out at you. First, the Sox had 10 hits, but only 4 runs. The Blue Jays had 5 hits and 7 runs. Without even seeing the game, you can see the Sox are not stringing together enough hits to generate a rally. They are getting a hit here, and a hit there. The only reason they even had four runs was that 3 of their hits were solo homers. Yes, all three were solo. Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Varitek, and JD Drew all went deep, but with no one on base. Now, against a pitcher like Halladay, you should be happy with that. But, the grand slam took that luxury away.

David Ortiz finally got another hit, his thrid of the season, and it was an RIB double. Love to see that.

Oh, I forgot. I said there were two things that should jump out at you in the box score. If you have been screaming, "what about the four errors!", then yes, you got it. Now, let's not run out and lynch the guy, but Julio Lugo had the worst day I've seen for him on a Sox uniform. Well, that happens. These guys are human, and some days they go home and wonder why they play this game. Tonight is like that for him. That's not the reason why we lost the game, and that's why I'm not making a big deal out of it. Chances are, a guy with his talent will not make another error for a week or two. He did not cost us the game, but he does need to tighten up.

Lastly, I am simply NOT on the same page as Terry Francona yet this year. I love the guy, don't get me wrong, but a manager has to not only read the numbers, but also get in a groove and fell out what will work. Taking out Beckett when he did, did not work. Now, of course, a rational fan knows why he did it. Beckett is in his first outing coming off an injury, and starting to lose control. But, on the other hand, his middle relief has been terrible. When I looked into Josh's eyes (in HD) I saw determination. His pitch count was not so high that one more batter would have mattered. Just let him get out of the jam himself. Instead, Francona turned it over to the bullpen, and in one pitch it was over. I know - 20/20 hindsight. But, that is how I felt as it went down. The other thing I disagreed with was no pinch hitting for Lugo in the 9th. Lugo was clearly not having a sharp day - that happens. So, bottom of the ninth, two men on, and the tying run at the plate - isn't that the kind of situation we have Sean Casey for? That was supposed to be the point of a guy like Casey - to hit in those kinds of situations. Now, surely Casey may have struck out. But, Lugo was having an off night, Lugo is not likely to hit a home run. So...

Now the Sox come home to friendly Fenway, where they will hopefully get a huge boost from us fans. Let's get these guys going! We are the tenth man - let's do our part.

Tune in tomorrow for some Yankee talk in the off day.

Let's Go Beckett - Where's Big Papi?

When Abner Doubleday came down from the mountains and showed everyone the commandments etched in stone by the baseball gods, the first commandment said, "Thou shalt not walk thy leadoff batter". Kyle Snyder definitely owes us twenty readings of "Casey at the Bat" as penance for walking both the leadoff batter and the second batter of the 6th inning. Of course, both batters scored, and Brian Corey conspired with Snyder to open the floodgates for Toronto as they built up an insurmountable 10-2 lead. Corey was intent on getting that Toronto lead up there. When Snyder came out, he left with men on second and third and one out, thanks to a sacrifice bunt. Then Corey came in and gave up a single to David Eckstein that scored the two baserunners, followed by a pop-out by Matt Stairs. So, two outs, runner on first, time to stop the bleeding and get back to the dugout? No, not yet. Corey then proceeded to give up a double, a single, and a home run to the big guy, Frank Thomas. The good news from there is that Julian Tavares came in and finished off the last 2 1/3 innings and looked very good!

Any rational Sox fan knows that someone was going to get taken off the active roster to make room for Josh Beckett's return, as it has been prophesied (sorry, got stuck in biblical mode again for a second there). Sox fans now had two finalists to be cut on their scorecards. In a bit of a surprise, the cut goes to Karl Snyder. Why a surprise? Because Karl does not have an option to go to Pawtucket and be called up later.

One last note on pitching. Starter Clay Bucholz looked better than he has looked this spring. He gave up 3 earned runs in 5 innings on 6 hits, 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. He showed some toughness, which is very promising. The second inning started with a walk and two singles scoring a run, but rather than let things get out of control, he struck out the next two batters followed by a pop-up to end the inning. He got into trouble again in the 4th, and may have gotten out of it with less damage, but for an error by first baseman Sean Casey filling in for the error-free Kevin Youkilis. The good sign here was when Bucholz came back out in the 5th and had an easy 1-2-3 inning.

Last note. Again, the Sox offense looked pretty inept. When is someone other than JD Drew going to start hitting (just had to write that sentence for my man JD). Seriously. It is very easy in a 10-2 loss to point all the fingers at the pitching. But, if the Sox only score 2 runs, the ONLY way they can win is to hold the opponent to zero or 1 run. That's pretty easy math, but while Snyder and Corey provided Toronto with a huge lead, and an emotional let down for the Sox, the game was over once the Blue Jays scored their 3rd run in the 4th inning.

Where do fingers point for that? I hate to say it but Big Papi is a key culprit. Toronto has been employing the "shift" against David Ortiz, and it seems to have him off balance, more so than I've seen in the past. I think he is in a little bit of a slump. Combine that with looking out at the field and seeing all of your hot areas covered, and you can find yourself really pressing. The Sox have played 6 games this season, and so far, in 22 at-bats, Papi has a mere 2 hits creating a .091 batting average. Manny Ramirez is faring better, batting .250 with 6 hits in 24 at bats, but he, along with Ortiz, has been batting poorly in the clutch. Just look at last night, for example. Second inning, runners on first and second with one out and Ortiz grounds out to first sending runners to 2nd and third. That opens up first base, so they intentionally walk Manny, and Lowell, who also has had a slow start, softly lines out to end the inning. Then, in the 7th inning with one out and runners at second and third, Ortiz strikes out and Manny grounds out to end the threat.

So, you're a little worried about pitching? You should be worried about offense.

Yankee review tomorrow - how is the enemy looking this year?

Captain to the Rescue

You've probably heard it before - it's all about pitching and defense. Last night's game was a perfect example of that. Matsuzaka had a terrific game! Great to see him so sharp, only allowing 1 run and 2 hits in 6 2/3 innings. Add to those numbers 9 strikeouts and no walks, and you are looking at a nice night. With a guy having such a nice night in such a close game, I thought it was a tough decision for Francona to pull him with 2 outs in the 7th. My guess is that Francona planned on pulling him after 7 no matter what, so it was only one batter different. And that one batter was Cust, who had hit a home run off a good pitch in the second inning, and is a lefty - all adding up to having Okajima face him. That plan kind of backfired when Okajima walked Cust, but he got the next batter on a pop-up, so no harm done.

If you are a regular reader, you recall prior to game one I said Ellsbury batting 8th would not last long - only until his bat started getting warmer. Last night he was back at the top of the order doing some nice damage. I also surmised that Papelbon's less than stellar performance against the Dodgers was likely due to him trying some new things in a meaningless game - like a new slider he's been developing. Last night, he threw nothing but fastballs and was his old dominating self. Great to see, although I hope the slider does improve, having more weapons is a good thing.

Defense was very sharp - no signs of fatigue after the day off. Crisp was diving all over center field, Lugo was a vacuum at short, and Youkilis tied ex-Dodger Steve Garvey's major league record of 193 consecutive errorless games games at first base. That is good company to be in.

The offense for the Sox was quiet, unfortunately. Youk scored from 2nd in the 6th with 2 outs on an extremely close play at home. The ump probably could have called it either way, but it think he got the call right - looked like the tag from A's catcher Suzuki just missed. The only other run also involved a close call against the Sox as Varitek's 2 out smash in the 6th appeared to barely clear the yellow line in right center for a home run, but the umps saw it as a double. Luckily Youk scored on the hit, and thanks to great pitching, the lost run was a non-factor.

While the Sox looked sharp, other than on offense, the A's, again, were a bit mistake-prone. Not a good thing against a team like the Red Sox. Suzuki got picked off stealing at a somewhat questionable moment in the 3rd - but I think they were trying to be aggressive. The Captain turned that threat back. In the 8th inning, with a runner on first and no outs, Jack Hannahan lays down an awful bunt right into Mike Lowell's hands allowing Lowell to easily throw out Bobby Crosby at second. Had the bunt gone towards first base, the sacrifice would have worked easily. In the 4th, first baseman Daric Bartman simply dropped an easy foul pop-up by Mike Lowell, but escaped damage when Lowell went on to strike out.

This afternoon, I'm not sure, with it being so early in the season, if Francona will go back to Okajima or Papelbon. So, we're going to need either a lot of offense, or a solid night from Lester and the rest of the bullpen. JD Drew will be back in the lineup, so I expect we'll see Ellsbury sit this one out. As much as we love him, he's the 4th outfielder as long as Crisp plays well.

Funny sight of the night...

Late in the game, the NESN cameras showed an A's fan happily holding up a nice big sign overhead proclaiming that they still believe! Unfortunately, the sign was upside down and created a very comic moment. Maybe when he looked up it looked right side up to him? Glad he's on their side!

Two down, 160 to go

Again, this trip to Japan is definitely odd. The season has started and the Sox are 1-1, but now we go back to playing exhibition games? I'm sorry, but I just don't like that. But, I do like the fact that the Sox are getting a chance to recover a bit from the travel before jumping into the next game.

What happened in game 2? Well, bottom line is the Sox ran into a very good pitcher having a very good day. Rich Harden looked terrific in his 2008 debut, and A's fans should be very happy about that. He more or less mowed down a good hitting lineup. He went 6 innings, striking out 9 batters while only allowing 3 hits. Very impressive. The downside for Harden was the home run to Manny, along with 3 walks. The Sox bats were cooled off enough that they managed only 2 more hits and 4 more strike outs after Harden's exit from the game following the 6th inning. Thirteen strikeouts in one game for the Sox? Not a proud offensive showing.

Lester looked decent and kept the Sox in the game. His control was off enough that batters were able to work the count on him and get his pitch count up, leading to an earlier than desired exit. I like Lester, and I expect he'll be a reasonably reliable 4th or 5th man in the rotation. I don't see him going much beyond that yet, unless he can consistently lock his command down, which he has only shown glimpses of so far.

What to watch for next...

Bartolo Colon will be getting the start in the first exhibition game against the Dodgers. He's still looking good, and a good start in that game may accelerate his time table. As a Sox fan, your biggest worry right now should be who will fill Schilling's spot in the rotation. You have heard that last year's Championship team is nearly untouched, so why not will it all again? Well, without Schilling, the all-important starting rotation has a hole. Last year we had Schilling, Beckett, Dice-K, and Wakefield as the core of the rotation (granted Schilling was injured for a period of time, but follow along for a minute). The 5th spot was filled admirably by Tavares and then Lester in September. Without Schilling, we need to rely on someone like Clay Bucholz to step up. But, as a rookie, I'd look for him to be a 4th or 5th man in the rotation. That bumps Wakefield up to 3rd in the rotation.

So, to me, Colon could turn the season around. If he gets back to even close to his potential, he clearly fits in as either the number 2 or 3 man, leaving Wake in the 4th slot, and allowing more flexibility for Francona to work the hot hand into the 5th slot. With an effective Colon added to the rotation, the Sox would have the nod over the Yankees on pitching. Without him, it's a draw.

I never thought I'd be cheering for Colon. Times change.

Game On!

It is here at last - opening day! By the time you read this, the game may very well be over. But heading into the game, let me give you something to chew on.

The batting order that has been communicated at this point is as follows:

Pedroia
Youk
Papi
Manny
Lowell
JD Drew
Varitek
Ellsbury
Lugo

If it does not jump out at you, let me give you a hint. Look at the top of the order. Wouldn't you expect Jacoby Ellsbury to lead off? He did a great job of getting on base last season, and when he gets on base he creates all kinds of trouble for the defense. With his speed he can practically score from first on a sacrifice fly! While that is an exaggeration, he DID score from second base on a wild pitch last year.

So, what gives? Pedroia is a fine batter, but a s...l...o...w runner. To tell you the truth, I'm not sure exactly why the order is the way it is. You may hear that they don't want to put Ellsbury right in the spotlight to start off his "official" rookie season. Well, I would not give that theory much credit. They put Jacoby in the lead off spot as a replacement for the injured Coco Crisp in the World Series! There is no bigger stage than that. If they are willing to bat him lead off in the World Series, then opening day is not a big deal.

Here the real (most likely) reason. Jacoby has not had a great spring offensively. He is not their regular lead off batter (ala Johnny Damon for a few years). So, they are playing him relative to how he is playing right now. I guarantee he will not spend much time batting 8th this season. Terry Francona is simply putting him in a low pressure part of the order while he is looking for his groove at the plate and letting him get his stroke back with less urgency than if he was batting lead off.

Look for Dice-K to have a great game. He is at home, in comfortable surroundings, playing in front of an adoring home crowd. This should be a great game for him. The one thing to watch there is removing a starter during a game is a bigger deal than in the US. I'm sure that won't sway Francona, but I wonder how the Japanese fans will react to it. This time of year, I don't expect starters to go more than 6 innings.

Game On!

Red Sox Pitching Progress

You've heard it a million times now - pitching wins championships. The point being that solid pitching is the foundation a team needs to start from. So, how does the pitching situation look for the Red Sox so far? Very promising!

Bad news - Schilling is out for a significant period of time. A healthy Schilling eats up innings, provides a solid veteran presence, can handle pressure, and is a proven post-season star. He will be missed, but that is nearly all the bad news!

Positives:

It was very confusing last year why Dice-K looked so good earlier in games, and earlier in the season. For a while, hitters were incredibly off balance, than later they were not. Well, according to pitching coach John Farrell, they discovered Dice-K was tipping his change-up. Not a good thing. The change-up is a fairly easy pitch to hit - IF you know it is coming. The change-up is a stealth pitch. To the batter, the pitcher looks like he is throwing a fast ball. However, due to a different way of gripping the ball, the pitch comes in roughly 10 miles per hour slower. It will either confuse the batter long enough to force him to take the pitch, or get him swinging too early. Anyway (you know all that already), if the batter knows it is coming, watch out! So, they've worked with Dice-K on perfecting the change-up and early indications are that the adjustments are working! This can make a huge difference!

Bartolo Colon looks like a steal so far. Throwing very well, mechanics are solid, and arm strength is great! If he keeps this up, don't be surprised he works his way into the #3 spot in the rotation! But, coming off of injuries the past two years, my concern is whether the elbow will last an entire season, or get sore again?

Tim Wakefield seems to be over his back issues and throwing well. Beckett is in better shape than last year and looks poised to dominate again! John Lester looked good in his last outing, and got some important post season experience last year.

As of today, my starting 5 for the Sox:
1) Josh Beckett (obviously)
2) Daisuke Matsuzaka (look for at least as good of a year as last year)
3) Bartolo Colon (presuming the elbow stays strong - may start in AAA for the first game or two)
4) Tim Wakefield (an effective knuckler keeps batters uncomfortable)
5) John Lester (nice to have a left starter)

Bullpen:
Julian Tavarez - long relief - spot starter
Karl Snyder - long relief - spot starter
Mike Timlin - middle relief - occasional setup man - spot closer
Manny Delcarmen - middle relief
Javier Lopez - need a lefty in the 'pen
Hideki Okajima - setup man - occasional closer
Jonathan Papelbon - Closer

Buchholz or Hansack may start the season with Boston if Colon is not ready. They'll probably spend most of their time in Pawtucket, and get called up as needed. If there is a significant injury, or they simply shine, they may stick longer. Gronkiewicz, Corey, Tejera and Masterson are all potential call ups as needed, but expect them to play mostly in the minors. They would be available to replace Tavarez, Snyder or Lopez if they aren't getting the job done.

That leaves Craig Hansen. So far, he still looks disappointing. He hit the Sox with such promise, but has shown very little since then. He throw very well, has a strong arm, but just can't get guys out. Not sure if it is mental, or perhaps predictability. Hopefully he can turn it around this year and start moving up!

Where are the young pitchers?

It is VERY early still, and spring training is going very smoothly for the Red Sox. Everyone is healthy, progressing well, and getting the work in.

But, have you noticed how the veteran pitchers are outshining the youngsters so far? The Red Sox have terrific depth in their young pitchers, and with the success we saw from guys like Lester and Buchholz last fall, I think we all are looking for the young guys to make a big splash this year. Alternatively, I usually see the veteran pitchers easing through spring training, not looking so good early on, but trying to peak for opening day.

Well, so far that has been backward in Fort Myers. The youth are starting the slowest (Lester 36.0 ERA, Hansen 18.0 ERA, Buchholz 18.0 ERA, Jackson 27.0 ERA, Gronkiewicz 10.12 ERA). These stats are based on no more than 2.2 innings of work, but it is interesting seeing the young guys starting out so slow.

The "veterans" (some of whom are pretty young too) are looking pretty strong out of the gates. Dice-K 1.80 ERA, Snyder 0.00 ERA, Wakefield 0.00 ERA, Timlin 0.00 ERA, Papelbon 0.00 ERA, and Okajima 0.00 ERA. Beckett has not pitched in an "official" game yet (pitching once to Boston College and once in a 'B' game) but he also has a 0.00 ERA and his only complaint is that he's too strong (overthrowing the fastball and getting too much elevation on it early in the game).

So, the older guys look good - Sox fans need to be happy about that. The young guys? Well, give them more work - plenty of time left.