Surprised by Mirabelli's Release?

You should be. This is not earth shattering news, but if you are intrigued, then you are paying attention. Doug Mirabelli has been the Sox primary backup catcher since 2002. He is very competent defensively, and is better than most at handling the knuckle ball, which allows the Sox to get the most out of Tim Wakefield, while providing regular rest for Jason Varitek. Mirabelli has never been a great hitter, but has been occasionally clutch and does reasonably well for a part time player. He became a free agent after 2007, but was re-signed this winter to a one year $550,000 contract. So, what changed since they signed the new contract?

Well, Doug's batting has been slowly declining since 2004, but he batted a reasonable .273 in six games this spring. Also, his age has been slowly increasing. Doug is 37 years old this year. That is not ancient, but it makes sense that the Sox would want to get younger at catcher. With Varitek turning 36 next month, they clearly need to be grooming the catchers of the future. My guess is that is exactly what is happening, but I do wonder why they signed Mirabelli to a new contract - wouldn't that have already been apparent? Well, perhaps they wanted to make sure someone could catch Wakefield, and Doug was their guy until someone else stepped up. So, who's stepping up? Who is the guy that has proven to them that they no longer need Mirabelli? Tim Wakefield has started 3 games so far this spring. For every inning of those three starts, his catcher has been Doug Mirabelli. If someone is taking his place, wouldn't you want to see that person handle Wakefield in at least one game this spring?

You may have read and heard that his successor is apparently Kevin Cash. If that is true, that is nothing more than a short term fix. Kevin Cash is not the catcher of the future for the Sox. I like the guy, but he is 30 years old, and only occasionally has he shown big league potential. He failed to stick with the Blue Jays, playing with them from 2002 to 2004 when he went to Tampa Bay. He had one spotty year with the D-Rays in 2005 and spent all of 2006 in the minors. When you can't make it with the Devil Rays, you've got to wonder. He was a decent fill-in last year for the Sox when Mirabelli was injured. But, how many catchers suddenly become big league material starting in their 30's? So, if Kevin Cash starts the season in Boston, it will be purely to be a backup catcher for this year, and the Sox must feel that he'll give them a little more than Mirabelli would have.

But, look further. There are two other young catchers coming along in the Sox system, Dusty Brown and George Kottaras. These guys are young, 25 and 24 years old respectively, and are looking pretty good, both of then batting over .400 this spring. So, do the Sox have hopes that one of these guys will take Mirabelli's place? Not sure, especially since neither of them has caught Wakefield in a game this spring. More likely, these guys are potential guys to take over for Varitek as the starter in a couple years. If that's what they hope, they won't waste their playing time sitting on the bench and solely catching the knuckle ball. So, the more they like these guys, the more likely they'll be in Pawtucket this year.

So, like I said, if you are intrigued, you are paying attention. I think the most likely situation is that they simply felt Mirabelli's skills, mostly due to age, have declined, and they want to break the mold of having a knuckle ball specialist as a catcher. They want more flexibility than that, and are willing to sacrifice a few extra passed balls to get a younger, hotter catcher as a backup, and Kevin Cash may be able to provide that. There is one other possibility that would not surprise me. It is conceivable that there is a trade pending that could being a new catcher into the picture. But, you would think they'd hang on to Mirabelli until the ink was dry first.

Red Sox Pitching Progress

You've heard it a million times now - pitching wins championships. The point being that solid pitching is the foundation a team needs to start from. So, how does the pitching situation look for the Red Sox so far? Very promising!

Bad news - Schilling is out for a significant period of time. A healthy Schilling eats up innings, provides a solid veteran presence, can handle pressure, and is a proven post-season star. He will be missed, but that is nearly all the bad news!

Positives:

It was very confusing last year why Dice-K looked so good earlier in games, and earlier in the season. For a while, hitters were incredibly off balance, than later they were not. Well, according to pitching coach John Farrell, they discovered Dice-K was tipping his change-up. Not a good thing. The change-up is a fairly easy pitch to hit - IF you know it is coming. The change-up is a stealth pitch. To the batter, the pitcher looks like he is throwing a fast ball. However, due to a different way of gripping the ball, the pitch comes in roughly 10 miles per hour slower. It will either confuse the batter long enough to force him to take the pitch, or get him swinging too early. Anyway (you know all that already), if the batter knows it is coming, watch out! So, they've worked with Dice-K on perfecting the change-up and early indications are that the adjustments are working! This can make a huge difference!

Bartolo Colon looks like a steal so far. Throwing very well, mechanics are solid, and arm strength is great! If he keeps this up, don't be surprised he works his way into the #3 spot in the rotation! But, coming off of injuries the past two years, my concern is whether the elbow will last an entire season, or get sore again?

Tim Wakefield seems to be over his back issues and throwing well. Beckett is in better shape than last year and looks poised to dominate again! John Lester looked good in his last outing, and got some important post season experience last year.

As of today, my starting 5 for the Sox:
1) Josh Beckett (obviously)
2) Daisuke Matsuzaka (look for at least as good of a year as last year)
3) Bartolo Colon (presuming the elbow stays strong - may start in AAA for the first game or two)
4) Tim Wakefield (an effective knuckler keeps batters uncomfortable)
5) John Lester (nice to have a left starter)

Bullpen:
Julian Tavarez - long relief - spot starter
Karl Snyder - long relief - spot starter
Mike Timlin - middle relief - occasional setup man - spot closer
Manny Delcarmen - middle relief
Javier Lopez - need a lefty in the 'pen
Hideki Okajima - setup man - occasional closer
Jonathan Papelbon - Closer

Buchholz or Hansack may start the season with Boston if Colon is not ready. They'll probably spend most of their time in Pawtucket, and get called up as needed. If there is a significant injury, or they simply shine, they may stick longer. Gronkiewicz, Corey, Tejera and Masterson are all potential call ups as needed, but expect them to play mostly in the minors. They would be available to replace Tavarez, Snyder or Lopez if they aren't getting the job done.

That leaves Craig Hansen. So far, he still looks disappointing. He hit the Sox with such promise, but has shown very little since then. He throw very well, has a strong arm, but just can't get guys out. Not sure if it is mental, or perhaps predictability. Hopefully he can turn it around this year and start moving up!